COP28’s Final Verdict: A Reflection on Climate Ambitions and Realities
December 16, 2023 | By: Peter Doo
This morning (Wednesday), the gavel came down concluding COP28 in Dubai. Reports of the results of the conference are mixed. Many argue that failure of the COP28 Global Stocktake to commit to a phaseout of fossil fuels will result in the world’s inability to limit global warming to 1.5°C and is a threat, particularly to small island nations. Others applaud the language that, for the first time, specifically mentions fossil fuels.
(d) Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;
Critics point out that there are many loopholes in this agreement but country commitments to COP are not legally binding anyway.
The Significance of Addressing Fossil Fuels in COP28 Agreements
What I find encouraging about this COP is that it recognizes that fossil fuels are the culprit, something that everyone has known for a long time but that interested parties have managed to keep out of the language of these agreements until now. This COP agreement also calls for, among other things,
- Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030,
- Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power,
- rapid deployment of zero-and low-emission vehicles,
- Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.
While these things are not legally binding, they send a clear signal to everyone, including investors, that the future is carbon free. Continued investments into fossil fuels are a risk. These assets will be substantially stranded within a decade. Fossil fuel companies may be held libel for their contributions to climate induced damages, similar to tobacco or asbestos judgements (see the end of this blog). On the other hand, investments and financial support will rise for renewable energy and carbon free forms of energy including nuclear.
The Strategic Path Forward: Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Targets
While the phase out of fossil fuels addresses mitigation, much needs to be done to address adaptation as the effects of climate change are already upon us. Adaptation strategies include,
- Significantly reducing climate-induced water scarcity and enhancing climate resilience to water-related hazards towards a climate-resilient water supply
- Attaining climate-resilient food and agricultural production
- Attaining resilience against climate change related health impacts
- Increasing the resilience of infrastructure and human settlements to climate change impacts to ensure basic and continuous essential services for all.
Investment Trends Post-COP28: The Rise of Carbon-Free Energy
The COP28 report includes a section on Finance that describes the level of investments necessary to mitigate the effects of climate change as well as the funding anticipated to satisfy adaptation and loss and damage. These are not small sums, but costs of climate related damage will rise as global temperatures rise. Pay now or pay later and it’s certain to be more expensive and more damaging to humankind later. The World Economic Forum calculates that for the past twenty years, global climate related damage has cost $140 billion per year or $16 million per hour. It estimates that the global cost of climate change damage is estimated to be between $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion per year by 2050.
While many say that the COP28 Global Stocktake isn’t strong enough, voices of optimism say it is not what we say but what we do. Indeed, the COP document notes the importance of transitioning to sustainable lifestyles and sustainable patterns of consumption and production. There were protests at COP. Climate activists, particularly youth, made themselves heard.
The Power of Activism and Policy: Forging a Path Beyond COP28 Declarations
This brings me to share news of the successful challenge by sixteen young people in the State of. Montana in Held vs Montana. In August of this year, sixteen young people between the ages of 2 and 18 won their suit to strike two laws that prevent State courts and agencies from considering GHG emissions or climate change in their environmental reviews. The plaintiffs prevailed in enforcing their “right to a clean and healthful environment“ under the Montana constitution. While this case involves a narrow holding under a state-specific constitutional provision, it is a win that will encourage similar actions.
With more actions like these and as climate concerns are felt at the ballot box, citizens hold the power to achieve the goal that COP28 failed to deliver. It’s not what we say, it’s what we do.